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Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Happy Election Day for those who observe. You may be surprised to learn that the top news narratives of the day are all midterm election-related. I know that’s the salient, keen insight you come to the Morning Frame for every day, and I aim to deliver! Donald Trump’s closing argument next to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool was largely derided as a hot mess of commentary about pipes, algae, and Bermuda grass. Overlooked was his apparent concession that the Midterms will not go well for the Republican Party after he repeatedly insisted voters see it as a referendum on Trump. In related news, a massive “Blue Tsunami” result is now expected, which very well might happen, but also strangely feels like Democratic hubris of 2016. Managed expectations are the key to happiness, and it's starting to feel like anything less than D Sen 54 will be a disappointment. Oh, and we bombed Iran yesterday, and while appearing on Hannity Monday night, President Trump seemed unaware. So there’s that.
01. Blue Tsunami or 2016 Again? Polls and Prediction Markets Now Say the Senate Goes Blue Too
[Gaining Traction]. The House was never in doubt, but now most polls and every prediction market give Democrats the Senate.
The House has been written off to Dems for months, but the new and growing consensus is that the Senate will go blue as well. The final New York Times/Siena polls put Democrats ahead in all seven battlegrounds. Nate Silver puts the Senate at 80 percent for Democrats, Sabato has them at 53 seats, and Kalshi projects 53 to 46, with a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 79 percent. Iowa, the one battleground Republicans still led on Kalshi Monday morning, flipped overnight.
Fox News’s power rankings were read on Fox & Friends this morning and give Democrats the House 223 to 195, with 13 of the 17 toss-ups in Republican hands. The pollsters that Republicans book won’t call it for them either. Robert Towery told Sean Hannity, “I’m not going to tell you right now that the Republicans are winning these races.”
The New York Times provided an important caveat. Nate Cohn wrote that white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier than white Republicans to answer its final polls. That’s a wider gap than existed in 2020 when the polls overstated Democrats. Hannity read that on air and pointedly asked why the paper would release it.
TAKEAWAY: I am not in the prognostication game; however, ten years ago almost all of the very same forecasters had Hillary Clinton winning. If this blue wave doesn't materialize, the anger at the polls and legacy media will make 2016 look mild.