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Friday, October 16, 2026
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
With midterms less than three weeks away, the “Russia, Russia, Russia” narrative has returned, this time backed by a different set of evidence. Donald Trump cut a controversial deal with Vladimir Putin aimed at relieving diesel prices three weeks ahead of midterms, which undermines bipartisan sanctions placed on Russia following their invasion of Ukraine. Themes of “kompromat” have returned from 2016-17, with Joe Scarborough, who may as well have been reading from a script from ten years ago, said, “Whatever Putin has on Trump doesn’t matter. What matters is that Donald Trump is actively working to help a Russian aggressor, undermine Western democracy, undermine the Western order, and open up Western Europe to Russian attacks.” Meanwhile, Ken Paxton is being labeled a terrible candidate by Fox News hosts, and Trump is blaming Paxton’s troubles on Karl Rove and John Cornyn.
01. Trump Siding With Putin Spreads to the News Side After the Starshield Order Is Traced to the White House
[Going Mainstream]. Wednesday Musk said the limits were ultimately the president’s call. Thursday Reuters traced the order to the White House.
Reuters reported late Thursday that the order to slow Ukraine’s Starshield service came from inside the White House, which won’t say who gave it. Trump told Newsmax that he finds Volodymyr Zelensky “more difficult to deal with than Putin.” On Morning Joe, Joe Scarborough said “whatever Putin has on Trump doesn’t matter. What matters is that Donald Trump is actively working to help a Russian aggressor, undermine western democracy, undermine the western order, and open up western Europe to Russian attacks.” Richard Haass said “the appeasement word is not too strong,” and asked where Marco Rubio and Senate Republicans were. “They are accomplices.” On Special Report, Marc Thiessen said Zelensky “needs to learn the fine art of shutting up.” Fox News’s opinion shows Thursday never mentioned Ukraine, and Fox & Friends got there once, in a segment praising Musk’s flying car: when Starlink went down, Ukraine was “totally blind.”
TAKEAWAY: Trump’s closing argument heading into election day appears to include a resurrection of the Russia, Russia, Russia narrative that he effectively used as a grievance meme during his first term. I don’t think that works this time.
02. Loyalty Attack on El-Sayed Becomes the Closing Argument After Vance Calls Him a Weasel
[Gaining Traction]. Tuesday Vance joked about Talarico’s search history. Thursday he called El-Sayed a weasel and Trump called him a Muslim Brotherhood guy.
Vice President JD Vance told a Michigan crowd Thursday that voters “deserve better than a little weasel who should shut his mouth and show a little gratitude to the country that gave him everything.” Trump said the same day, “I call him Mohammed Abdul El-Sayed and he’s a Muslim brotherhood guy, 100%.” Abdul El-Sayed answered “what you’re talking about is a wolverine.” Fox News ran the NBC exchange about his mother’s alleged Brotherhood ties on four primetime shows and again on Fox & Friends Friday. CNN’s Isaac Dovere said El-Sayed told him the attention “makes him a little uncomfortable, that he wasn’t ever running to be the main character of the midterms,” and quoted Attorney General Dana Nessel: “It’s not the choice we wanted, but it’s the choice we have.” Politico’s Jonathan Martin told Morning Joe that El-Sayed “didn’t seem that mad about it. I think he relishes the attention.”
TAKEAWAY: Just a day after JD Vance was in the news for gay-baiting James Talerico, the vice president returned to name-calling that some might say shows he and the GOP are bereft of compelling arguments less than three weeks until the midterms.
03. GOP Blame Game Starts Early as Trump Pins a Paxton Loss on Cornyn and Rove
[Gaining Traction]. Wednesday Paxton ducked CNN’s town hall. Thursday Trump blamed Cornyn and Rove for a loss in advance, and The Five’s hosts blamed Paxton.
Trump posted Thursday afternoon that if Ken Paxton loses, “it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove,” and that Rove “shouldn’t be allowed to spew his jealousy on FoxNews. [SIC]” Cornyn voted with Trump 99 percent of the time, CNN noted. On The Five that afternoon, Jesse Watters said Paxton has “this whiff of corruption around him” and that “thank God we have more money than they do or else this could be curtains for Republicans.” Elon Musk gave the Senate Leadership Fund $75 million and $83 million in September, and each time the fund sent the same amount to the pro-Paxton Texas PAC the next day, according to the New York Times and CNN. Senator Thom Tillis said at an energy summit that after the election he’ll be “reaching out to Republicans who aren’t crazy” to recover from “almost certain losses.”
TAKEAWAY: Recriminations like this usually occur days after an election loss. The fact that preemptive finger-pointing has emerged so early might say more about what Republicans are seeing in their private polls than what is publicly available.
“I do not support any deal with Russia. I think Vladimir Putin is a vile dictator and thug.”
That’s NY Republican Rep. Mike Lawler responding to CNN’s Boris Sanchez, who’d asked about Trump’s deal for Russian diesel. The battleground-district candidate added, “Not one penny should be going to Russia or Vladimir Putin.” On the Starshield slowdown, he said, “That decision should be reversed immediately.” Lawler co-sponsored the Russia sanctions law Trump’s diesel deal ignores. (CNN, The Source)
Where the prediction markets and the coverage disagree. Odds: Kalshi and Polymarket, as of 8 AM ET Friday.
This newsletter holds no position in any market listed. Not betting advice.
Eric Deters to Air the Guilfoyle Tape Friday at Three PM: The Kentucky Trump donor who effectively ended Don Jr.’s former fiancée Kimberly Guilfoyle’s time as ambassador to Greece is NOW suing her for defamation. On Thursday, he announced Friday plans to play a 16-minute phone call recording that “might just bring down the entire Trump administration.” Popcorn popping. (Mediaite)
Bush’s 38 Approval the Week Republicans Lost the House in 2006. Gallup had George W. Bush at 38 percent the week before the 2006 midterms. Two weeks out, Karl Rove had told NPR’s Robert Siegel that the radio host was entitled to his math and Rove was entitled to “THE math.” The math lost 31 House seats and the Senate. Rove was out of the White House by the following August. Bush bottomed out at 25 in Gallup’s poll in the weeks before the 2008 election and left office at 34.
Based on transcripts from the 6 and 7 a.m. hours of Fox & Friends, CNN This Morning, News Central, and Morning Joe/
The GOP panic about a blue tsunami is on all networks now, and this newsletter has tracked it every day so much it’s almost become a tired story. But “It’s the economy, stupid” still holds, with one significant caveat. The economy that voters are mad about is one Trump built intentionally, with tariffs and the Iran war. The 2026 midterms have all the makings of an historic protest vote, supported by Fox News’s own poll that shows 88 percent being very or extremely concerned about corruption. But while Democrats will benefit in the near term, what message will emerge in their 2028 run? Because the protest Trump vote will be moot, and they have a massive political spectrum to manage, from corporate centrists to DSA progressives.
The Morning Frame tracks which political stories are spreading, which are stalling, and how you can tell the difference. Powered by Narrative Prism.
You missed the racist dog-whistle in the Vance speech just one sentence before the one you cited. Vance asked if the GOP message is 'too white, too proud, and too American' for AES. A couple of the backdrop actors seemed surprised by that imagery. To me, that was more inflammatory than the weasel reference.